Crops > Outlook & Prices > Outlook & Prices
April 2025
Exports still leading the charge
The end of March and beginning of April brings a slew of data from USDA. In March, the Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports revealed that crop usage remains strong, keeping stocks manageable, farmers expect to shift many acres from soybeans to corn. In April, USDA updates the WASDE report to shift their crop usage estimates to line up with those stock estimates. To summarize how these reports have adjusted the 2025 outlook, I have combined the latest crop usage estimates for the 2024 crops from the April WASDE report, the new estimates for 2025 plantings from the Prospective Plantings report, and the yield and 2025 crop usage estimates from the Ag Outlook Forum to create tentative balance sheets for corn and soybeans. As usual, take these balance sheets with a block of salt as USDA will likely make several significant adjustments to the 2025 crop usage estimates starting in the May WASDE report (the first WASDE report that will have 2025 crop estimates). These balance sheets provide a good starting point for discussing the opportunities and challenges for the upcoming crops.
Let’s start with corn. Corn usage has reached record levels and continues to grow. Combine that with the pullback in production last fall and ending stocks are falling. Yet despite that, season-average prices continue to drop. Looking at the annual numbers, USDA boosted 2024 exports by 100 million bushels, but lowered feed and residual usage by 25 million. The combination lowered 2024-25 ending stocks to 1.465 billion bushels. That’s roughly 300 million bushels less than the 2023-24 ending stocks. While corn usage grew by roughly 230 million bushels, corn production declined by 474 million bushels. But the challenge looking forward is that with corn acreage expanding, corn production will likely grow, and usage could decline. The Prospective Plantings report showed more corn acres than both USDA and the trade expected, and with that expected corn production would set a new record. USDA’s initial estimate for 2025 corn plantings was 94 million acres. The Prospective Plantings survey found farmers intend to plant 95.3 million acres of corn. Keeping the ratio of planting to harvested acres and the yield from the Ag Outlook Forum and combining that with the new estimates of corn area leads to an adjusted 2025 production estimate of 15.8 billion bushels, which bests the 2023 record by more than 400 million bushels. Even with smaller corn stocks from 2024, total corn supplies for the 2025 marketing year are projected to be higher than 17.2 billion bushels.
If USDA were to stay with their Ag Outlook Forum 2025 corn usage estimates, then feed and residual usage is projected to be 150 million bushels higher, corn usage for ethanol would be steady, food, seed, and other uses would fall by 5 million, and exports would decrease by 150 million. So, total corn usage would contract slightly. Production would exceed usage by roughly 600 million bushels, implying a substantial year-over-year increase in ending stocks. Higher stocks tend to lead to lower prices and USDA’s early estimate for the 2025-26 season-average price is $4.20 per bushel, 15 cents below the current year’s price. We also need to remember that the 2025 export estimate was created before the reciprocal tariffs were announced and paused, adding more uncertainty to trade policy and flows.
While 2024 corn stocks are shrinking, 2024 soybean stocks are building. Soybean usage is rising, but the combination of production and leftover stocks increased more quickly. Looking at the 2024 crop, domestic crush of soybeans increased by 10 million bushels from last month. Over the past couple of years, increases in soy crush were driven by renewable diesel production. But over the past few months, the pressure on soy crush has come from the export markets. Soybean meal exports are at record levels. Meanwhile, soybean oil exports have suddenly soared. The growth in soy product exports is good to see, but 2024-25 ending stocks are still building, now set at 375 million bushels of soybeans, up 33 million from the 2023-24 final level. And even with record soy crush, the 2024-25 season-average price has fallen to $9.95 per bushel.
With the substantial fall in soybean prices, soybean planting intentions have been lowered to 83.5 million acres, down 3.6 million from last spring. Given the new acreage estimate, projected soybean production is slightly under 4.35 billion bushels, nearly equal to last fall’s production. At the Ag Outlook Forum, USDA outlined 2025 domestic crush demand at 2.475 billion bushels, with exports taking 1.865 billion bushels. If USDA held to those usage estimates now, 2025-26 ending stocks would retreat to 289 million bushels. So, soybean usage is expected to exceed production, but that is not translating into higher prices. The 2025-26 season-average price for soybeans is set at $10.00 per bushel, only 5 cents higher than the 2024-25 estimate.
Between the string of USDA reports and the everchanging tariff landscape, corn and soybean prices have been on a wild ride over the past couple of months. The figure below shows 2025-26 projected prices based on the futures markets. Since the beginning of the year, those price projections had worked their way higher. But the month of March provided a hard reset, especially for corn. And April brought showers, tariffs, and pauses. With estimated production costs at $4.35 per bushel for corn and $11.15 per bushel for soybeans, corn prices are holding on the positive side of breakeven, but soybeans haven’t seen breakeven for a while. Trade policy will still be a major price driver over the next few months, but as planting proceeds, weather issues and potential production will steal some of the spotlight.
The latest Market Outlook video is also provided for further insight on outlook for this month.
Chad E. Hart, extension economist, 515-294-9911, chart@iastate.edu
