Note DetailLa Niña likely to reduce US corn yield
3/5/2011 6:55:00 PM



The Mar 4 La Niña assessment by Dr. K Wolter found
only slight weakening of the strength index.  The
event ranks 3rd in historical strength for this
date; slightly weaker than 1974 & stronger than
1955. The 1974 event remained strong through May &
the year was not favorable for US corn yield. The
1955 event strengthened in Apr & May to become the
strongest La Niña of the past 60 yrs.  The 1989
event began a rapid decline in March & La Nina
conditions dissipated by Jun.  March is a pivotal
month, as conditions could shift to normal,
however, as of now the most likely US corn yield
for 2011 computes as 148BPA. The graphic relative
risk of higher or lower yield together
with “balance sheet” price estimates for DEC corn
at harvest estimated by Dr. R Wisner is posted at
www.twitter.com/elwynntaylor  .  
References:   www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/outlook/cornbalancesheet.pdf  
www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Field_Crops/cornyld.asp
www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/




Iowa State University Extension

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