Note DetailLa Niña Risk Increases
2/10/2011 6:18:00 AM

The current La Niña is strong, right up there with
the top 4 of the past 100 years.  The Christmas
floods in Australia were no surprise to La Niña
watchers.  That strength has prompted Dr. Klaus
Wolter (a scientist I highly respect) to state
that, “the odds are well above 50%” the La Niña
will persist right up to 2012. The risk of below
trend level yield (for Midwest corn and soy) is 70%
for La Niña summers.  Not a drought forecast but
still enough to make the chance for a sub-standard
yields a consideration.  Dr. Wolter will issue his
next forecast about March 5th, leaving sufficient
time for adjustment of crop insurance levels.  For
now I will assume that the most likely 2012 U.S.
corn yield is 155BPA.  On the bright side, the
chance of slightly dry soils at planting time is
enhanced and that is a welcome outlook. -- Elwynn--

Iowa State University Extension