Note DetailLa Nino risk Corrected
5/27/2010 8:52:00 AM

The ENSO is wavering just to the La Nina side of
normal.  There is some indication that it will
progress to become a La Nina.    Will it be a 
La Nina in June to impact corn and soy?   In July
to impact soy?   In late Aug to give a great
harvest season and set up for a drought in 2011?  
Cannot say, but still near a 25% chance before June
is over. The SOI is at +0.33 (+0.8 is La Nina).  
The sea temperature is cooling from Tahiti east (a
La Nina indicator) and the atmospheric pressure is
highest in a month at Tahiti (another indicator). 
Still the pressure is not really low in North
Australia (Darwin) (Low there is an indicator).
   The rain for May is shy of normal for NC and SC
but not really drought, still it needs watching as
long as it is not wet in the area.
   The drought risk is real but not likely as of
now for the Corn belt.   Some market scares are
likely.                Elwynn

Iowa State University Extension