Note DetailLa Nina (drought) risk creeping up
5/27/2010 8:49:00 AM



The ENSO is wavering just to the La Nina side of normal.  There is some indication that it will progress to become a La Nina.    Will it be a La Nina in June to impact corn and soy?   In July to impact soy?   In late Aug to give a great harvest season and set up for a drought in 2011?   Cannot say, but still near a 25% chance before June is over. The SOI is at +0.33 (+0.8 is La Nina).   The sea temperature is cooling from Tahiti east (a La Nina indicator) and the atmospheric pressure is highest in a month at Tahiti (another indicator).  Still the pressure is not really low in North Australia (Darwin) (Low there is an indicator).

The rain for May is shy of normal for NC and SC but not really drought, still it needs watching as long as it is not wet in the area.

The drought risk is real but not likely as of now for the Corn belt.   Some market scares are likely.
    Elwynn



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