Note DetailUS Corn Outlook for 2010
12/3/2009 10:12:00 AM



3 Dec. 2009-- The most likely US Corn yield for
2010 is 160 BPA for conditions & reports in
November 2009.  Factors considered include: 
El Niño (La Niña) not forecast to be a factor &
soil moisture at capacity across the Corn Belt as
of November 1st.   The yield is 2% above the USDA
30-year trend for 2010.  Most forecasts of the
still-developing El Niño anticipate that the event
will diminish to neutral conditions before June
2010 (www.elnino.noaa.gov).  There is a long term
23% chance that yield will exceed 173 BPA and a 17%
chance it will be 142 BPA or less. The consistent
yields of since 1996 would indicate that the chance
of these extremes is currently somewhat reduced.
Should the El Niño event persist through the coming
summer the most likely yield will be 169 BPA.  The
Nov. 10th Balance-Sheet by Dr. Wisner estimates the
harvest-time value of the Dec 2010 contract at
$3.79 for a 160 BPA crop
(http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/outlook/cornbalancesheet.pdf ).
                             – Elwynn --  



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