Note DetailENSO Uncertainty Complicates Risk Management
2/28/2009 9:58:00 PM



Ames, 28 Feb. 2009 – Historical record clearly show
a shift in crop yield risk of the U.S. Corn belt
for neutral and for La Nina conditions.  The
current La Nina event – ENSO – is showing signs of
weakening but no clear trend.  Often the trend is
apparent by mid-March and usually by mid-April.  At
this time I consider the chance of neutral vs.
La Nina conditions by June 1st to be 50/50.  The
Corn supply and demand balance sheet of 23 Feb.
2009,
 http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/cdoutlook.html , 
indicates that a trend line corn yield – 153.4 BPA –
 would have a likely Dec. contract value of $4.53
at harvest time.   Historical yield response to the 
ENSO indicates a most likely U.S. Corn Yield of
144 BPA should the La Nina continue (Dec. value at
harvest $5.45) and 155 BPA (Dec. value of $4.37)
for neutral conditions.            – Elwynn –  



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