Note DetailWhere do I find the SOI?
5/15/2008 9:15:00 AM



Tom asks: Where do I find a listing of the moving
average that you use in your El Nino/La Nina
discussions?  If I remember correctly it is the 
90 day moving average that you based your research
and forecasting on.

Tom: go to    http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/ 
   click on SOI Table    note that today it is
9.82 and moving down in a regular manner that tells
us to expect it to be into neutral about June 1st
(neutral is below 8).   Every point below 8 gives
was less chance of below trend yield... when it
gets to 2 or so conditions to give above trend
yield exist... but it would have to get there
before mid-July to really help.
   Also note that 9.82 is really 0.982 standard
deviations above normal (they shift the place for
some reason in Australia).   The 90-day value today
is really 0.98 and neutral is at 0.8.  --Elwynn

 



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