Note DetailWhere do I find the SOI?
5/15/2008 9:15:00 AM
Tom asks: Where do I find a listing of the moving
average that you use in your El Nino/La Nina
discussions? If I remember correctly it is the
90 day moving average that you based your research
and forecasting on.
Tom: go to http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/
click on SOI Table note that today it is
9.82 and moving down in a regular manner that tells
us to expect it to be into neutral about June 1st
(neutral is below 8). Every point below 8 gives
was less chance of below trend yield... when it
gets to 2 or so conditions to give above trend
yield exist... but it would have to get there
before mid-July to really help.
Also note that 9.82 is really 0.982 standard
deviations above normal (they shift the place for
some reason in Australia). The 90-day value today
is really 0.98 and neutral is at 0.8. --Elwynn