Note DetailRisk still holds
5/13/2008 8:53:00 AM



Jim asks: “The La Nina event appears to have passed
its peak and recent warming of sea surface
temperatures near the equator off the western
equatorial coast of South America and diminished
Trade Winds in the area are likely to hasten the
return to neutral conditions.” Does neutral mean
hot and dry? Do you still see the chance of
significant drought in the Midwest at 33 %?   

  Jim: La Nina sets the stage to change to hot and
dry, if it fades the risk fades.   Until the SOI
(now 1.0) fades to below 0.8 the drought risk
remains at 30% or so (there are other factors
changing things a % or two.    -- Elwynn



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