Extension Communications
3614 Administrative Services Building
Ames, Iowa 50011-3614
(515) 294-9915
11/16/99
Contacts:
Paul Lasley, Extension Sociology, (515) 294-0937, plasley@iastate.edu
Del Marks, Extension Communication Systems, (515) 294-9807,
dkmarks@iastate.edu
Farmers Predict Continued Decline in Numbers of Farms
AMES, Iowa - Iowa farm operators are nearly unanimous in their expectation that the number of farms in the state will continue to decline during the 21st century.
Ninety-eight percent of the respondents to the 1999 Iowa Farm and Rural Life Poll expect historic trends toward fewer, larger farms to continue, said Paul Lasley, Iowa State University Extension rural sociologist who directed the poll. And 96 percent say that more farm families will rely on off-farm work in the years ahead.
Answering a series of questions about what the farming profession will look like in the next century, survey participants said there are many obstacles facing farming in the next 10 years. Ninety-five percent of the respondents said it is likely that low farm prices will put many farmers out of business, and 89 percent expect the gaps between the rich and the poor to increase. Eighty-one percent say the high cost of living will prevent many people from retiring at age 65.
Food safety issues are likely to increase in importance in the coming years, according to 89 percent of those who responded to the survey. Consumers will become more concerned about the origins and quality of their food, said 83 percent of the respondents, and 74 percent expect environmental groups to have a greater influence on setting farm policies. Just over half of the poll respondents, 51 percent, think biotechnology will enable farmers to become less dependent on agricultural chemicals, and 49 percent think animal welfare groups will have a greater influence in the livestock industry.
Responding to questions on the use of farmland, 77 percent said it is likely that land use planning and zoning will be necessary to assure fairness between farmers and non-farmers. Sixty-four percent said they expect to see intense competition for water rights in the next decade. Forty-eight percent said they expect global climate changes will contribute uncertainty and risk to farming and 46 percent said they expect increasing numbers of farmers to use sustainable farming methods.
Seventy-one percent of the poll respondents think farmers will be forced to accept production and marketing contracts if they want to succeed, but only 18 percent think contract farming will provide farmers with better incomes. Seventy percent say changing food buying and eating habits will result in new opportunities for farmers in new markets including, organic, farm fresh, and range fed produce. Sixty-nine percent think it is likely that producers will join cooperatives or other bargaining groups to counteract the marketing power of big food processors.
Farmers predict the control of agriculture will increasingly shift to input suppliers that control germ plasma and seed stock (67 percent agree). Slightly over half, 52 percent, think federal and state governments will become more aggressive in regulating the marketplace to assure that farmers are treated fairly.
Only about half of the farmers responding, 51 percent, think increasing numbers of minorities will make rural Iowa more diverse in the years ahead, while only 29 percent think rural communities will enjoy new growth and prosperity as people seek out places to enhance their quality of life. Thirty-two percent think such growth is unlikely, while 39 percent are uncertain.
On the issue of the future of youth in farming, only 5 percent of the poll respondents think it is likely that more young people will become farmers in the years ahead, while 83 percent think that is unlikely. "It will be interesting to see how close farmers' predictions about the future come to fruition," Lasley said.
The Iowa Farm and Rural Life Poll is funded by ISU Extension and the Agriculture and Home Economics Experiment Station. The purpose of the poll, conducted since 1982, is to ask farmers' views on a variety of rural and agricultural issues. Mail questionnaires were sent to a random sample of 4,947 Iowa farm operators in mid-February, with a 52 percent response rate.
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