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PLAIN ECONOMIC SENSE
For release after March 22, 1999
Column 373
Poll on Constitutional Amendments Proposals Raises More Issues
By Mark A. Edelman
Extension Public Policy Economist
Iowa State University Extension to Communities
A recent poll of 834 registered Iowa voters who vote regularly in state elections raises more interesting questions than answers about the proposed constitutional amendments placed before voters this June.
The poll statistically had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent at 95 percent probability and was conducted by Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research Inc., a professional Maryland-based polling company. The poll was paid for by several statewide local government and school organizations, public interest groups and union and senior citizen interests that have generally opposed putting tax and expenditure limits into the constitution. However, not withstanding some potential wording biases, the poll still provides some interesting results that are likely to be validated to some degree by other polls asking about similar concepts.
Perhaps the most interesting finding was that when respondents were given a choice, they gave a strong indication of wanting tax and spending decisions to be made by their state legislators, and generally opposed putting policy decisions into the state constitution. Statewide, the poll indicated that 56 percent of the respondents felt legislators should determine tax decisions; 29 percent felt tax decisions should be placed in the constitution.
Respondents at the time of the poll did support the general concept of restricting or limiting state government's ability to spend money and raise taxes. Forty-seven percent want more restrictive limits on future tax and spending decisions, 31 percent want to continue the present system, 11 percent want fewer limits, and 11 percent were not sure. More specifically, a 62 percent majority of respondents liked the idea of requiring a 60 percent super majority vote to approve state tax increases.
While the respondents appeared to like these concepts, they didn't necessarily feel the concepts should become part of the state constitution. Only 26 percent of the respondents felt Iowa's 99 percent revenue spending limit should be made part of the constitution, and 55 percent indicated it should remain a state law.
A stronger majority, 64 percent, said they opposed constitutionally-imposed tax limitations if the result is higher property taxes. The pollsters said support for a 60 percent super majority to increase state taxes also did not translate into a mandate for amending the constitution, as 54 percent felt it should be adopted as a state law and only 28 percent favored it as a constitutional amendment.
Forty-six percent of the respondents agreed with continuing the recent Iowa tax policy trends of shifting the costs of schools and local government from local property taxes to state sales and income taxes. Support for this trend would appear to be somewhat contradictory to policies that place limits on state spending. Only 28 percent were opposed, while 26 percent were undecided, indicating that many respondents have not formed an opinion on this issue.
The widest margin of opinion was registered on the question asking whether constitutional amendments should be decided during a regular election in November or whether a special election should be held in June. Eighty-one percent favored November. Ten percent favored June. Nine percent of the respondents weren't sure.
In general, more than a majority of poll respondents agreed that putting the tax and spending limits into the constitution would reduce the ability of the legislature to respond during an economic downturn, that now is a bad time to put the requirements there because of the devolution of federal safety net responsibilities to the state and local level, and that there is little pressing need for a constitutional amendment because the state has already balanced the budget and reduced taxes.
Finally, there does appear to be a gender gap on the proposed constitutional amendments. On several questions men registered 10 to 18 percent stronger support for revenue and spending limits than did women.
Edelman is a professor of economics and an extension public policy specialist at Iowa State University.
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