March 17, 2003
Convergence? Don't even talk to me

Peter Lewis has an interesting article at Fortune.com on convergence, that is, devices that do everything you'd ever want--video, audio, Internet all right there in one device. But, Lewis says, is that really what we want:

Mr. Hanson gives this example: He takes his camcorder into the backyard to take video of his children at play. When he walks back into the house, he wants the camcorder to automatically communicate with other devices in the home. The TV might offer to display the video. The computer might offer to store the video, or to e-mail it to grandma. The game console might offer to incorporate images of the kids into a game. He wants to download music from Sony's online music service and transfer it to the music player in his car. He wants to order a Sony movie through his VAIO and have it streamed to the Sony Wega TV in the bedroom.

This isn't convergence; it's divergence.

And here's what's wrong with the picture:

It's far too complicated for a consumer audience, unless the consumers have a technical degree from the University of Pluto. Most Americans still connect to the Internet over dial-up modems. The VCR clock is still blinking 12:00. When consumers go to the electronics store to buy home networking gear, more often than not they return it because it's just too hard to figure out. That's not an exaggeration: The return rate for home networking products is well over 50 percent, according to retailers.

And that's just for connecting computers, not to mention a United Nations of devices that use different communications protocols, different operating systems, and different media formats.

Sony and Microsoft don't even know how to explain to Ma and Pa and the kids why they should want their PC to communicate with the TV. Stop someone on the street and ask, "Are you frustrated because you want to stream video from your PC to the video monitor in your bedroom?" Chances are you'll get slapped.


Posted by dcoates at March 17, 2003 04:11 PM