Ag Cycles

The following series of papers is titled "Ag Cycles." Agricultural production and prices have always been cyclical. The influence of weather on production is one factor. The tendency of individuals to react rather than anticipate market signals also contributes to boom and bust periods. The length of the cycle differs with the commodity, and the weather and cyclical prices in one commodity will influence cyclical behavior in another market.

This collection of papers is an analysis of the current state of Iowa agriculture from the crop, livestock, and land market perspective. It examines the question of price levels and price risk going forward. It also includes a recent analysis and papers from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, which examines previous agricultural cycles and how they played out through borrower’s behavior. Combined, this analysis provides lessons from the past and milestones as potential guides to the future.

This analysis is not intended to be a forecast of annual prices in the coming months or years. Nor is it predicting gloom and doom for agriculture. Rather, it is intended to help put current economic conditions into a historic context, better understand the factors that will influence prices and margins in the future, and help you prepare for whatever direction the market turns.