2014 Farm Bill Analyzer: Data and Methods

File A1-33
Updated January, 2015

xls file xlsx file

The ISU Farm Bill Analyzer focuses on decisions at the single-farm level for corn and/or soybean producers in Iowa.PLC and ARC-CO payments and probabilities are not affected by the number of enrolled farms, while ARC-IC payments and probabilities might be.

Using historical information and expectations about prices and yields, the ISU Farm Bill Analyzer calculates expected payments and probabilities associated with payments under all possible combinations of programs across crops.

The process is set up in 3 stages:

Step 1 - Farm data: Please enter your farm-specific data in the yellow shaded cells. Then, review the projections in the green shaded cells. You can modify the projections manually by entering new data in the green shaded cells.

Step 2 - Expected Payments: Please choose the set of Marketing Year Average (MYA) price projections. The available sets of price projections are derived from USDA data, FAPRI data and the CME (futures prices).Then, review the projections in the green shaded cells. You can modify the projections manually by overwriting the green shaded cells.

Based on the information entered in Steps 1 and 2, and using Monte Carlo simulation techniques for 500 random draws per year of MYA price, county yield and farm yield for 2014 through 2018, expected payments are calculated for all possible combinations of programs across crops. The programs that address specific goals are highlighted in Box 4.Expected payments by year, by crop and for the whole farm can be analyzed in Box 5.

Expected net present values of payments for different combinations of programs at the whole farm level for the years 2014-2018 can be visualized in the following tabs: "Highly Likely Payments", "Highly Unlikely Payments", and "Expected Payments".The average annual probability of receiving no payment can be visualized in the tab: "Prob No Payment".

Step 3 - Revise Reallocation: All calculations are based on your choice of base acreage allocation in Row 20 from Step 1-Farm Data. In Section 4, you can analyze the potential consequences of choosing the alternative base acreage allocation.

 

Alejandro Plastina, extension economist, 515-294-6160, plastina@iastate.edu